Netanyahu's fate hinges on 12 to 15 Knesset seats held by Palestinian blocs

Polling data indicates that neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition nor the Jewish Israeli opposition will secure the 61 seats required to form a government in next week’s elections. With both sides forecast to fall short, the 120-seat Knesset balance now rests on the voting patterns of Palestinian citizens of Israel, who constitute approximately 20% of the country's population.

Projections suggest Palestinian candidates will capture between 12 and 15 seats, split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List. The Joint List is an alliance of three smaller parties, including Ta'al. This arithmetic forces the major blocs to court a community that has historically struggled to gain full representation despite a growing political presence.

Ahmad Tibi, leader of Ta'al and a Knesset member for over twenty years, stated that the Arab community aims to break the current government. He described high turnout as a critical tool to achieve that objective. Most Jewish opposition parties have previously ruled out coalition partners with Arab politicians, a stance Netanyahu’s camp has exploited to label such alliances toxic. Campaign posters have contrasted the right with Palestine, while slogans have pitted Netanyahu against Tibi.

Despite the rhetoric, past promises to exclude Palestinian parties have been broken. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu himself previously opened talks with Abbas. Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would possess a renewed mandate to accelerate annexation and ethnic cleansing policies in the West Bank.

Fear drives much of the Palestinian voter motivation. Leaders cite the war in Gaza, violence in the West Bank, and rising domestic discrimination as key factors. Sami Abu Shehadeh, head of the Balad party, called fear the biggest motivation for voters who worry about a return to far-right rule. He described the choice as a decision between a right-wing and a far-right government, with the latter carrying greater risks for minority rights.

The election occurs two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre, in which border police killed 49 residents during an unknown curfew. This timing intensifies the urgency felt by voters in towns like Kfar Qasim, where candidates recently held rallies featuring cardamom coffee and knafeh. The recent legal battle that effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article on the 7 October attacks has also fueled distrust in the system.

Some Palestinians are abstaining in protest. Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat said she refuses to legitimize a system that treats her rights as favors. A motion to disqualify security minister Itamar Ben Gvir over racist language was not upheld, a decision that further polarized the electorate. Iraqi described the upcoming vote as a measure of mitigation rather than a solution, reflecting the sense of powerlessness many voters feel.