Serbia Faces Uncertain Vote as Student List Challenges Fourteen-Year Ruling Party

Serbia enters a parliamentary election on Sunday that political scientists describe as the first truly competitive contest since the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) assumed power in 2012. The uncertainty stems from the rise of the Student List, a group of candidates backed by a movement that has protested the government for nearly two years. Analysts note that this vote differs from previous cycles due to the strength of the opposition challenge and the narrow margins predicted by recent polling.

Thousands gathered in Belgrade on Thursday evening for the Student List’s final rally. Many participants had walked to the capital from various regions of the country, creating a display of solidarity. Arsa Stojanovic, a biology student, told the crowd that the walkers had traversed the entire nation and confirmed they could rely on public support. Aleksandar Cupic, a professor of transport and traffic engineering running for the Student List, stated that the atmosphere "smells like freedom." The event concluded with a kolo, a traditional circle dance.

The movement’s origins lie in a concrete canopy collapse at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, which killed 16 people. Students have framed the election as a mechanism to address corruption and demand accountability for that disaster. They have also sought to bridge ideological, social, and foreign policy divisions that have historically divided Serbian politics.

Dusan Spasojevic, a political scientist, told Deutsche Welle that polls suggest the Student List could secure more than 40 percent of the vote. He characterized the current climate as one of high hope and substantial support for the challengers. In contrast, the SNS held its own closing rally a few kilometers away, emphasizing stability, continuity, and prosperity. The party argued that a change in government risks chaos and accused opponents of serving foreign interests. Former President Aleksandar Vucic claimed that adversaries had tried to destroy the country on foreign orders and had spent billions of euros attacking his party.

The campaign has been marked by conflict. The independent monitoring group CRTA recorded 116 incidents of physical violence or verbal threats in the final week. These included confrontations, attacks on campaigners, and attempts to seize banners. CRTA also reported that opposition activists, particularly those linked to the Student List, faced surveillance and police questioning. The group stated that the campaign was neither free nor fair, noting that nearly three-quarters of national television airtime went to government representatives while over 80 percent of Student List coverage was negative.

The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public-sector employees to deliver votes. Anonymous sources told Deutsche Welle that voters were offered between 30 and 150 euros, and in some cases holiday packages, to support the SNS. Independent media have also reported alleged links between party associates and criminal networks, though Spasojevic doubts these revelations will alter the final result.

Authorities have warned for weeks that students, allegedly aided by foreign intelligence services, are preparing for street violence. Several individuals have been arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances for election night. Spasojevic said a decisive win for either side would be the best outcome, but current polls point to a narrow margin and a likely post-election crisis. He added that a narrow SNS victory would almost certainly be contested, as the movement has vowed to defend every vote.

The European Union has emphasized that key recommendations on improving Serbia’s electoral framework remain unimplemented. An EU Commission spokesperson stated that democracy and the rule of law are central to the accession process. Serbia has held candidate country status since 2012. Spasojevic noted that the international response could be crucial in preventing escalation and persuading authorities to accept defeat without a heavy-handed response to protests.