US midterm campaign spending projected to hit record $11.9bn

Spending on the US midterm election campaign is expected to reach $11.9bn, making it the most expensive midterm cycle on record, according to the independent campaign finance organisation Open Secrets. Its projection, based on patterns in previous election cycles, would put the total about 30% above spending in the 2022 midterms.

Federal Election Commission filings covering the period through mid-October showed expenditure of more than $9.5bn. Political action committees, known as Pacs, and Super Pacs accounted for about $5.5bn, more than half that amount. Their spending almost doubled over the preceding couple of months. Complete figures will become available only after the elections on 3 November, once candidates, parties and outside organisations have reported their spending.

Super Pacs are a major source of money flowing into key contests. While contributions made directly to candidates are subject to limits, these outside groups can receive unlimited sums from individuals, companies, labour unions and other political committees. They cannot pass those funds directly to candidates, but can use them to support candidates indirectly.

Billionaire businessman Elon Musk was the largest individual donor, contributing almost half a billion dollars by October to support Republicans. Most went to America PAC, which he established in 2024, and the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund. Much of his money has supported Ken Paxton's Texas Senate campaign against Democrat James Talarico. America PAC invested more than $45m in that contest and around $10m in each of the Senate races in Michigan and Ohio.

The liberal-leaning Brennan Center for Justice said the 40 largest donors had contributed $2.4bn by 14 October, a record for that stage of a midterm cycle. Republican contributors included Jeff Yass and business supply company owners Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, whose donations exceeded $100m. Two organisations founded by George Soros, Geosor Corp and Fund for Policy Reform, together gave $102m to liberal groups. Apart from Soros, Michael Bloomberg was the biggest Democratic donor, contributing more than $60m.

Cryptocurrency businesses have also contributed substantial sums. Brendan J Glavin of Open Secrets said Ripple and Coinbase together provided $63m to Super Pacs promoting the industry's interests. Campaign finance expert Michael Beckel said wealthy donors and groups were supplying more of the money in an election cycle marked by record spending.

Campaign funds pay for voter outreach staff, rallies and internal polling, but advertising absorbs the largest share, particularly television. Advertising tracker AdImpact recorded $11.15bn in advertising expenditure through the end of October. Beckel said broadcast television remained the largest recipient of advertising spending, while digital advertising continued to grow. AdImpact found that Senate contests in Michigan, Texas and Ohio attracted the most advertising money, followed by Iowa and Maine.