US Dementia Diagnoses Expected to Double by 2060 Amid Care Shortages

Families in the United States face a growing burden of care as the number of adults diagnosed with dementia each year is projected to double. According to a 2024 study in JAMA, annual diagnoses will rise from 514,000 in 2020 to one million by 2060. This increase places additional pressure on a healthcare system that experts say is already under strain from recent funding cuts.

Globally, the annual incidence of new dementia cases is expected to more than double, increasing from 11.4 million in 2023 to 24.7 million in 2050, according to a new study in JAMA Neurology. The rise is driven by higher life expectancy, which moves larger populations into age brackets where dementia is most common. In the United States, the Hispanic population almost doubled between 2000 and 2024, a demographic that is 1.5 times as likely to develop dementia as white people, according to the Alzheimer’s Association.

Jordan Weiss, an assistant professor at the Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone, noted that families will absorb enormous emotional and financial costs. He stated that dementia often requires years of increasing supervision and hands-on care, which the current healthcare system is not designed to provide. Even with reduced individual risk, the sheer number of adults entering high-risk ages will drive the total count of people living with the disease upward.

The labor force supporting these patients is shrinking and struggling to meet existing demand. A 2024 report from the American Health Care Association found that almost all nursing home facilities reported difficulty recruiting new staff. Two-thirds of these facilities cited a lack of interested or qualified candidates as a primary issue, and about half limited new resident admissions.

Wages for these demanding roles remain low. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the median wage for nursing assistants at assisted living facilities and in home healthcare was less than $19 an hour in May 2025. Home health aides earned a median of $17 an hour. Regina Shih, a professor of epidemiology at Emory University, said the retention rate for direct care workers is very low because the work is difficult and cannot be replaced by artificial intelligence, yet workers are not adequately reimbursed.

The number of geriatricians in the United States has also declined. A JAMA report indicated that there were 10,270 geriatricians in 2000, dropping to 7,413 by 2022. This specialty is among the lowest-paid in medicine. In response to shortages, almost half of US states reported offering incentive payments to recruit or retain Medicaid home care workers in 2025, according to a KFF survey. South Carolina created a loan forgiveness program for physicians who complete fellowships in geriatrics and practice in the state for at least five years.

Financial constraints are intensifying the labor crisis. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which passed in 2025, included nearly $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid spending over 10 years. Medicaid pays for more than half of national long-term care spending, according to KFF. Shih described this as a serious challenge for expanding access to home care, personal care aid, and respite care for eligible individuals.

Medical advancements offer some mitigation but come with costs. The Food and Drug Administration has approved two drugs, Kisunla and Leqembi, that modestly slow cognitive decline in early Alzheimer’s disease. The agency also recently approved blood tests for diagnosis and potential prediction of the disease. Julie Zissimopoulos, a professor at the University of Southern California, noted that while these tools may improve lives and slow decline, they will be costly for the healthcare system. Weiss added that better cardiovascular health and physical activity remain key opportunities to reduce risk while the system builds the infrastructure needed for current care.