Hispanic voters in Rio Grande Valley are reconsidering their support for Trump

The political mood in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas is shifting ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

In 2024, the region helped Donald Trump secure an unusual level of support among Hispanic voters. He received approximately 55% of the Hispanic vote in the state, a record for a Republican presidential candidate. However, surveys conducted since late summer show a different picture. A majority of Hispanic voters in Texas now disapprove of the president. They favor Democrats over Republicans by a wide margin. This shift threatens the gains Republicans made in the previous election cycle.

Local sentiment is visibly changing in small communities near the border. Father Roy Snipes, who has served at La Lomita Catholic Chapel for nearly fifty years, addressed a congregation of about thirty people. The chapel sits 200 yards from the Rio Grande and dates back to the Civil War. Snipes criticized the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). He told the worshippers, "There's no good excuse to detain, incarcerate and deport poor, good folks who are our neighbours." Data from the Deportation Data Project indicates that Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026. This share is larger than that of any other state.

The border region has seen dramatic changes in migration patterns. Under former President Joe Biden, more than 2.5 million apprehensions were recorded in a single year at these crossing points. Trump pledged to end illegal crossings during his 2024 campaign. Crossings are now at their lowest level in decades. Yet, the method of enforcement is causing friction. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, acknowledged that most residents accept the deportation of criminals. However, he noted that the process becomes problematic when productive, law-abiding citizens are targeted.

Business owners are feeling the strain of the labor shortage. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman and leader of the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times. He plans to vote for a Democrat in November. Guerrero stated that voters were not informed about the extent of the administration's actions. He described an acquaintance whose crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to just four or six individuals. This scenario highlights the local distinction between securing the border and the manner of the crackdown.

Democrats are capitalizing on economic concerns in their campaigns. In the 15th congressional district, Republicans redrew the map in 2025 to create a notional 18-point majority. Current polling, however, shows a Democratic lead of five or six points. Candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has focused on the cost of living rather than the national party brand. "This isn't New York, this isn't LA," he said. At a local avocado festival, residents Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices. Baldwin said, "He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job."

Republican campaigners recognize they are facing challenges. Alexis Uscanga, a student volunteer, described the midterms as purely a game of turnout. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate for the 28th district, credited Trump with breaking through barriers but admitted that national political headwinds are real. If current polling trends hold, a modest swing back to the Democrats could reshape races beyond the district level. It could even put a US Senate seat in play, a seat Democrats have not won in more than 30 years.