Israel Election Leaves Both Blocs Short of a Majority as Arab Parties Hold the Balance

Israel's election has produced no clear winner. With nearly 80 percent of votes counted by Wednesday afternoon, neither the governing bloc nor the opposition had secured the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, and neither appeared willing to work with Arab parties that could tip the balance.

Tuesday's vote, billed as one of the most important in the country's history, drew turnout of 77.7 percent of eligible voters, the highest since 1999. The outgoing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and centred on his Likud party had 54 seats. The opposition alliance led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, which spans parties from Yair Golan's relatively left-wing Democrats to Avigdor Lieberman's hard-right Yisrael Beiteinu, had 49.

In theory, the Arab-dominated Ra'am and Joint List hold the balance of power. Together they have 17 seats, enough to give either bloc a majority to appoint a speaker, pass legislation and form a government. The figures are not final: the full tally is expected by Friday, and official results are due to be published on November 4.

The next steps are procedural as much as political. President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders on their preferred prime minister, then task the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. That person has 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. If they fail, the mandate can pass to another member of parliament. If that also fails, the Knesset is dissolved, new elections are held and the current cabinet stays on as caretaker.

Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up one-fifth of the population, reached about 80 percent by some estimates, also above the 1999 level. Analysts linked the surge to the treatment of the minority under the Likud-led government, particularly since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and to a well-organised campaign. Roi Zur, a lecturer at Essex University who specialises in Israeli voting behaviour, said having just two well-organised lists improved mobilisation, especially for the Islamist Ra'am, which ran a more efficient campaign than usual.

Both major blocs ran campaigns that critics called profoundly racist. Likud made unsubstantiated claims that the opposition planned to rely on Arab parties and petitioned to bar the Joint List from running. Lieberman ruled out a coalition with Arab or ultra-Orthodox parties, while Naftali Bennett, whose 2021-22 coalition included Ra'am, said there was "no mandate" to govern with Arab parties after October 7.

Former government adviser Daniel Levy argued the opposition "got what they deserved" and outlined four possible paths: a new election, Likud drawing defectors from the right of the opposition, a Netanyahu-led unity government drawing on the right, or an Eisenkot-led minority government with Arab support. He considered the last unlikely, though he said the Arab parties' asking price would not be particularly high.

Defections remain uncertain. Mairav Zonszein of the Crisis Group said it would be very hard for Eisenkot to work with Netanyahu's camp because of his demands for a state commission of inquiry into October 7 and a universal draft that includes the ultra-Orthodox. Bennett, she noted, has changed course before, while Lieberman remains a hard-right politician despite his dislike of Netanyahu.

Some, including Levy, raised the possibility that the government might seek a military escalation, potentially against Iran, as a pretext for an emergency government. Tel Aviv University political psychologist Daniel Bar Tal described a very challenging moment, saying many Israelis "want change but do not want to cooperate with Arab parties."