Brazil Run-Off: Service Workers Challenge Lula's Industrial Base

Brazil votes in a presidential run-off on Sunday.

The race is being shaped by a fundamental change in how ordinary citizens earn their income. This shift is altering political allegiances in ways that may determine the outcome of the election.

In Osasco, a city near São Paulo, closed factories have given way to shopping malls and delivery app offices. The municipality supported President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 2022 election. In the first round of voting this month, the city moved to right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro won the national first-round vote. Since 1989, every winner of the first round has gone on to become president.

Gilberto Almazan, who leads a local metalworkers' union, describes the transformation in Osasco. He notes that metal, chemical, and textile factories have disappeared. In their place, five malls were built. Almazan calls the union movement that helped launch Lula's career stuck in the Middle Ages. He argues that many workers now function as drivers, food couriers, or small traders. He labels this trend Uber-isation. These workers often value flexibility over the collective welfare systems Lula has traditionally promoted.

Richard Lapper, a biographer of both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, says Brazil industrialised late and deindustrialised early. This makes the economic effects feel sharper than in other nations. He describes Lula as a victim of his own success. Under Lula, unemployment fell to a record low. Brazil was also removed from the United Nations Hunger Map. However, Lapper points to a crisis of expectations. Higher prices, household debt, and high interest rates mean many people do not feel better off despite the statistical gains.

Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant who grew up supporting Lula, blames the government’s mismanagement for the heavy tax burden. Tairine, a hot dog seller who previously abstained, now plans to vote for Bolsonaro. She says nothing has changed since Lula returned to office. Gisele Bonfim, a lawyer who voted for Lula in 2022, says Bolsonaro brings the hope of change.

Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending, reducing the number of ministries, and lowering some taxes. He says he will keep some of Lula’s flagship welfare programs. He has faced corruption accusations, which he denies. In the first round, 33 million people did not vote. This is the highest level of abstention since 1998.

Lula’s campaign is responding with large street rallies. The campaign says one rally in São Paulo drew about a million people, including hundreds of thousands of students. Aerial footage of the crowds has spread online. Lula, who is 80, has used social media to rebut claims that he is past his prime. He called himself the king of selfies.

Among the poorest voters, Lula’s welfare record still resonates. In Maré, one of Rio de Janeiro’s largest favelas, Lula won the first round despite above-average abstention. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother earning under 300 pounds a month, praises the minimum wage increase, two days off for workers, and free essential medicines. She doubts Bolsonaro’s plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang a terrorist organisation. She fears police raids like those in Rio last year that killed more than 130 people. Andreza Dionísio, a resident of Maré, blames last-minute polling station changes and a sense of hopelessness for the low turnout.

Evangelical churches, attended by about a quarter of Brazilians, are increasingly filling gaps in social support with childcare and food. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is being investigated for allegedly obstructing the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro, says Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church’s values on family and opposition to abortion. He calls the probe politically motivated. Almazan fears there will never be another Lula.