Shi'ite poll: 66% want state arms control

66.4% of Lebanese Shi'ites support transferring Hezbollah’s weapons to the state, according to a September poll conducted by Statistics Lebanon. The survey, which sampled 800 members of the community, reveals a notable departure from previous indications of opposition to disarmament. The results were reported in mid-October by Israel’s public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org.

The data suggests growing questions about the group’s role within the community that has historically formed its core base. While 29.6% of respondents preferred Hezbollah retain its arsenal, a clear majority favored state control. Hezbollah has long maintained that its military capacity is essential for defending Lebanon against Israel, a claim the new figures challenge.

Further details from Kataeb.org, affiliated with the Christian Kataeb Party which opposes Hezbollah, show 71.1% of respondents believe decisions on war and peace should rest solely with the Lebanese state. Only 5.9% said Hezbollah’s leadership should have a larger role in shaping the country’s future. Confidence in the national military is also high, with 78.5% of respondents trusting the Lebanese Armed Forces. An additional 51.1% named the army as the best institution to guarantee long-term security, compared to just 16.5% who chose Hezbollah.

Sentiment regarding recent conflicts is mixed. 67.4% said Hezbollah failed to meet its goals or achieved only some during the war with Israel. 42.1% expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about the group’s leadership and the conflict's consequences. However, 59.5% still trust the organization, with 37.1% reporting a high level of confidence. Roi Kais of KAN noted that Hezbollah’s support networks and status continue to sustain its strength, provided no other entity fills the vacuum.

These findings contrast sharply with a May 2026 survey by Information International, cited in a June 10 analysis by the Institute for National Security Studies. That earlier poll found 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, with only 7.9% supporting the transfer of weapons. More than 90% opposed ties with Israel in that same survey. Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni noted that differences in wording or agenda may explain the gap. They argued that weakening the group requires a stronger army and financial support from Western and Gulf nations to replace services Hezbollah provides.

Local signs of wariness are emerging in the south. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it could become a target in an Israeli strike. Such branches have been hit previously. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere.

The group has suffered major military and leadership losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. A new war broke out in March 2026, causing heavy destruction in villages in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese state must now offer security, reconstruction, and economic opportunity if the discontent shown in the September poll is to translate into lasting political change.