Serbia’s October Vote Tests Vucic’s Grip Amidst Register Gaps and Surveillance Claims

Serbia enters a decisive electoral period as Aleksandar Vucic seeks the premiership in a parliamentary vote scheduled for October 25. After fourteen years in power, the leader faces his most direct challenge from an opposition movement that emerged from student protests. Vucic resigned as president in late September to avoid a third term and is now running for the prime ministerial office, a role he previously occupied from 2014 to 2017.

The integrity of the ballot is under close examination following an investigation by RFE/RL's Balkan Service. The review identified approximately 500,000 individuals on the electoral register who lack complete residential addresses, often missing street names or house numbers. Additional irregularities were found in hundreds of records listing voters at public social welfare centers or in apartments that could not logically accommodate such large numbers of residents. These findings mirror concerns raised about the 2023 election, where international observers reported voter intimidation and the transport of voters from Bosnia-Hercegovina.

The timing of the election coincides with the second anniversary of the Novi Sad railway station canopy collapse on November 1, 2024, which killed sixteen people. That disaster sparked nationwide protests over corruption in a Chinese-led construction project. The movement intensified after police used force and arrests against demonstrators, including an incident on March 15, 2025, involving the alleged use of a sonic weapon. Following a June protest, Vucic announced his resignation and called for early elections.

Current polling indicates a deeply divided electorate between the ruling coalition and the student-backed opposition. Vladimir Bilcik, a former European Parliament rapporteur for Serbia, described this contest as the first in over a decade with a genuinely uncertain outcome. The opposition list is headed by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic and includes university professors, though the movement has stated that Srdanovic’s position does not guarantee a premiership if they secure victory.

The government claims it has implemented all recommendations from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) following its criticism of the 2023 vote. However, an interim OSCE report contradicted this assertion. The organization has deployed 300 observers to Serbia. RFE/RL also noted an increase in eligible voters from Bosnia and Kosovo, regions that typically support Vucic’s Progressive Party. Four employees of Serbia-funded institutions in Kosovo told RFE/RL they faced pressure to vote for the ruling party, a practice also documented in several domestic municipalities.

Allegations of illegal surveillance have further complicated the political climate. A statement from the US Senate's Foreign Relations Committee on October 21 cited reports of illegal monitoring of opposition members. Research by the Serbian nonprofit SHARE and Toronto University researchers alleged that at least sixteen cases of the Pegasus surveillance software, which is illegal in Serbia, were used in 2026. Government officials have denied targeting their political rivals. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed personal support for Vucic, and Republican Congressman Joe Wilson stated that Russia is deploying resources to monitor Serbian citizens.

Vucic has pledged to maintain his foreign policy course, including his refusal to follow EU calls for sanctions against Russia. The student movement has focused on fighting corruption and has also reiterated support for Belgrade's stance of not recognizing Kosovo's independence. Serbia's EU integration has stalled, with no new accession chapter opened since late 2021.