Nine-hour closures define Moscow airport disruptions in October

Russian aviation hubs are facing persistent operational halts due to Ukrainian drone activity. The disruption has intensified this month, affecting the primary gateways to the capital.

According to data from the investigative outlet Agentstvo, Moscow's Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo airports suspended operations almost every day in October. On several occasions, the closures lasted for as long as nine hours. This pattern follows a strategic objective outlined by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early September. He stated that Ukraine intended to render Russian airspace around Moscow and other destinations unsafe. Ukraine sent a formal warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization the day after this public address.

The operational stoppages are largely driven by a safety measure implemented by Rosaviatsiya, Russia's aviation authority. Known as the carpet protocol, this procedure mandates the immediate closure of airspace if an aircraft violates borders, weapons are deployed, or unidentified objects appear. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, noted that every drone is treated as a military threat. He compared the situation to the disruption caused by Yemen's Houthis in Saudi airspace, arguing that Ukraine's capabilities now exceed those of the Houthis.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev observed that Ukraine can easily disrupt traffic around Moscow without fully closing the airspace. He explained that triggering the protocol requires only simple drones that lack warheads or long range. Ukraine's industrial capacity allows it to produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily. Simon Shuster, writing in The Atlantic in October, reported that these efforts are still in their initial phase.

Matvejev argued that Russian air defenses have not been fully effective against these drones. He stated that if interception were possible, the Russian military would have already done so. He suggested that Russia would have deployed additional air-defense troops if they were available. Both experts warned of risks to civilian aviation. Laneckij indicated that Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol. This could increase the danger of incidents similar to the December 2024 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight, which killed 38 people when hit by a Russian air-defense missile.

Matvejev noted that little has changed in Russia's defense protocols since that crash. He explained that the risk to aircraft is low when drones are shot with machine guns, but higher when missiles are used. Mass-produced missiles can have defects that send them toward nearby airliners. He added that drones do not need explosives to cause harm, as a collision with an airplane can be severe. He described a drone flying from Ukraine to Moscow as weighing dozens of kilograms. Airports outside Moscow have also been impacted, with drone debris falling on Sochi airport earlier this month and a strike on Pskov airport in the summer of 2023.

The future of foreign flights to Russia depends on three factors identified by Laneckij: military threat, demand, and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, premiums will rise, pushing ticket prices upward. Competition in Russia's aviation market has already shrunk as many airlines exited the business. This has increased demand for seats on the remaining foreign carriers. Laneckij stated that the decision to stay or go depends on the price carriers must pay for the danger faced.