Netanyahu's Bloc Ahead in Israel Election but Short of Majority, Partial Results Show

Partial results from Israel's general election show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp ahead of its main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, though it has not reached a parliamentary majority.

With 85% of ballots counted, Netanyahu's Likud party and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies were on course for 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Eisenkot's Yashar party and three other Jewish opposition parties in his bloc were projected to take 48. Both men have said they will try to assemble a governing coalition.

Arab-led parties are on track for an unprecedented 19 seats, which could make them kingmakers. However, all but one of the Jewish parties have pledged not to work with them. Between 430,000 and 480,000 absentee ballots from soldiers and diplomats remain to be counted, so final results could take another day or two.

Once the results are confirmed, President Isaac Herzog will consult every political faction and invite the leader he believes is most likely to succeed to form a government. That process could last weeks, and if it fails, another election would ultimately be required.

Speaking at his Jerusalem residence, Herzog praised the 77.7% turnout on Tuesday, the highest in more than two decades. "It is a badge of honour for Israeli society, and it was remarkable to see how deep the desire for democracy is in Israel," he said. He expects official results next week and urged all parties to arrive for talks with an open mind, saying everything must be done to avoid another round of elections.

The night produced shifting signals. Initial exit polls from three Israeli broadcasters gave Eisenkot's "Change Bloc" 52 to 53 seats against 50 for Netanyahu's bloc, and Eisenkot told supporters in Tel Aviv that the public had "spoken in favour of change". Updated exit polls later showed two projecting a 51-51 tie and one giving Netanyahu a narrow three-seat lead. Netanyahu then told supporters in Jerusalem that his bloc had won a "great majority" and warned against a government that relies on "anti-Zionist Arab parties".

Within the opposition, views on the Arab parties differ. Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats, said on Wednesday there was an opportunity to form a change government in partnership with them. Yousef Jabareen, chairman of the Joint List, said his party was "ready and prepared to pave the way to oust the Netanyahu government". United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas, who served in a short-lived coalition formed after the 2021 elections, said he hoped the numbers would allow the Change Bloc and his party to reach 61 seats.

The United Arab List and the Joint List appear headed for record representation, helped by strong turnout among Arab Israelis, who make up about a fifth of the population and often describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Tuesday's vote was the first since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023 and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Many Israelis saw it as one of the most consequential elections in the country's history. Key issues included accountability for the security failures behind the attacks, the conduct of regional wars, conscripting ultra-Orthodox men, judicial reforms and Israel's international standing.