Netanyahu claims Likud lead as Israeli election results remain fragmented

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a crowd of supporters at his Likud party headquarters in West Jerusalem on Tuesday, several hours after polls closed in Israel's legislative election. He argued that a right-wing government is essential to guarantee the country's long-term security, warning that Israel cannot depend on coalitions with Arab parties that oppose the nation's existence.

As early results began to emerge, Netanyahu acknowledged that Likud was projected to become the largest party in the Israeli parliament. However, he noted that the final tally was still one or two days away. According to projections from Channels 12 and 13, Likud was on track to win an estimated 27 seats, compared to 21 for Yashar, the party led by Gadi Eisenkot.

The broader coalition dynamics appear complex. The Times of Israel projected that Netanyahu's bloc would secure 56 seats, while Eisenkot's alliance would win 49. With more than half of the ballots counted, neither side appears likely to secure a clear path to a governing majority, setting the stage for difficult negotiations.

During his speech, the Prime Minister highlighted what he described as significant achievements since assuming office in 2022. He stated that his government had worked wonders to change the face of the Middle East, citing the elimination of key figures including Mohammed Deif, Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, Hassan Nasrallah, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Netanyahu further claimed that Israel had established security zones deep inside Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. He asserted that these moves removed an immediate existential threat, describing the danger of immediate destruction as having been lifted. He added that Israel struck the Iranian regime, bringing it to the edge of the abyss, and declared that Iran is now weaker than ever while Israel is stronger than ever.

Looking ahead, the Prime Minister said Israel has a historical opportunity to work with United States President Donald Trump. He described the goal as removing the existential threat of Iran once and for all, framing this as a central objective for the next government.

Political observers suggest the road to power may be fraught with challenges. Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador who served as consul general in New York City, noted that the party securing the majority of seats may have to seek an uncomfortable coalition deal to govern. However, he added that opposition voters would likely resist any bloc striking a deal with Netanyahu's coalition.

Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera's senior political analyst, characterized Netanyahu's speech as an attempt to put on a brave face regarding his party's prospects. Bishara argued that the Prime Minister is trying to project a type of success that he does not merit. He pointed out two reasons for this: first, Netanyahu cannot yet form a coalition, and second, the status of being the largest party obscures the fact that this is the lowest seat count for Likud since 2009.

Dan Perry, a political analyst, told Al Jazeera that Netanyahu used the speech to spin the situation as favorably as possible following the release of exit polls. The event served as a platform to assert strength and direction amidst a fragmented electoral outcome.

The results highlight a divided political landscape where the traditional power dynamics are shifting. While Likud holds the lead in individual party seats, the lack of a decisive majority for either the right or the center-left alliance suggests that coalition building will be the defining feature of the next phase of Israeli politics.