Record Arab Turnout in Israel's Election Could Cost Netanyahu His Majority

Palestinian citizens of Israel went to the polls in exceptional numbers for the country's parliamentary elections, with some towns reporting participation above 70 percent. In recent years, turnout in Arab communities has typically ranged between 45 and 65 percent.

The surge could threaten Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition. Many voters who might normally have stayed home saw this election as a chance to defeat a government they view as hostile to Palestinians and Arabs generally.

Several actions by the current government appear to have pushed participation higher. One example was an attempt by Jewish settlers to set up an outpost on Palestinian land in Majd al-Krum, in the Upper Galilee. Hussein Manna, a resident of the town, told Al Jazeera that the episode stirred people who had been indifferent. "They know very well what awaits us if this government returns to power," he said.

Netanyahu and his far-right allies, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, targeted Arabs heavily during the campaign. That approach seems to have backfired, prompting more Palestinian citizens to back the Joint List and the United Arab List (Ra'am). Preliminary reports indicate the two parties could win up to 17 seats combined, enough to keep Netanyahu below the 61 seats needed for a majority.

Ahmad Tibi, head of the Arab Movement for Renewal, said the first goal is to bring down the government of Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. He cautioned, however, that leaders of almost all parties opposing Netanyahu have ruled out an alliance with Arab parties, a stance he called racist and linked to the aftermath of October 7. Tibi said Arab parties are ready to cooperate with the opposition to remove Knesset speaker Amir Ohana and to stop Netanyahu from leading a transitional government.

Tibi added that any alternative government would not be a government of peace, but that it should exclude Ben-Gvir, Smotrich and what he called racist ministers. In return for tacit support, he said, Arab parties would seek dialogue on crime, violence, personal security, home demolitions and racism.

Walid al-Omari, Al Jazeera's bureau chief in Palestine, described the vote as fateful for Netanyahu's political future and for Israel's identity. He said a continued Netanyahu coalition would push Israel toward racism and extremism. He also outlined one path to a majority: if Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party wins 53 seats and Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, wins eight, a 61-member coalition could be formed.

As Arab turnout appeared likely to be high, Netanyahu and the far right ran a frantic campaign warning their supporters. Netanyahu posted AI-generated images of Arab voters, which the Joint List condemned as an attempt to create a "misleading scene". Analyst Mohannad Mustafa said Netanyahu regards the Arab vote as illegitimate and that the hostile campaign set a dangerous precedent.

There were also reports of right-wing parties sending activists to polling stations, widely read as intimidation. Tibi said he toured ballot boxes in Taibe, Tira and Qalansawe and saw people slowing the process to create long queues, apparently hoping voters would give up. Instead, he said, he saw the community's determination to stay until voting was done.

The result carries weight across the region, given the war in Gaza, which has killed more than 74,500 Palestinians, and attacks on Syria, Lebanon and Iran during Netanyahu's term. Political analyst Tariq Hamoud said a government without Netanyahu could affect those military engagements, and noted that Netanyahu bears responsibility for the security failure of October 7.